MH370 found?

[HJ1AN]

I'm going to revive this thread here...

That the prime minister said it's the MH370 part is jumping the gun.

because apparently now that the flaperon is missing its serial number or ID number, and the investigators are having a fun time looking into the piece. And also something about the barnacles. I dunno. Just want to make sure Malaysia's PM didn't just throw in an extra flaperon into the sea deliberately eh?

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... psrc=nymag

[Jabberwocky]

Two thoughts, and keep in mind probably everyone here is a better pilot than I am but ...

I do offender profiling since a long time and nothing in this story actually indicates a pilot suicide. Even more, the last data indicates a course change. Suicide pilots don't change course, they go down, like that German Wings copilot. And if he would have wanted to commit suicide because of marriage problems, the last place he would want to fly by is the house where he lives with his wife unless he plans to drop in. Which he obviously didn't.
The other thing is, suicide pilots like any other suicidal person acts on a limited time frame. They are afraid if they don't do it now, they don't do it at all. But for pilots, there is additionally the chance, someone may stops them, that limits the time frame even more. So, no way, a suicidal pilot flies some what was it, eight hours over the ocean before he drops.
And technology can be switched off. We all fly in FlightGear, some of us daily. Do you really think, anyone here would be unable to find the transponder and switch it off? And I would guess half of the people here would be also able to find the right fuses for ACARS. Consider a terrorist a lot more motivated as the average FlightGear enthusiast and you can guess how well they would do their homework. Still, doing homework is no guarantee. So I go with botched hijacking/terrorism.

The other thing is finding a plane on the bottom of the sea. It's nice to hear, there are 74 million square miles and an average depth of 3500m. But what does that mean? Those numbers are usually just too big to really imagine that and thus, there is always the idea, "it should been found by now". So lets play math with a totally different example for comparison: The Derbyshire.
MV Derbyshire was a bulk freighter of 294m length and a bit over 44m beam. Roughly a sonar target sixteen times bigger than a 777. Assumed, the 777 is in one piece which we can doubt after a piece was found thousand miles away. And ships move a lot slower than planes, so between the last known position and any possible wreck position is not so much distance. Still, it took 14 years to find the Derbyshire. Which is actually not that bad. The München sank in the Atlantic in the night from December 12 to 13, 1978. A destroyed lifeboat was all that was ever found of her.
An ocean is really big. So the relation between the size of a sonar target and the search areas is really really small. Imagine, you search a little shirt button on a football field. Well, that would still be factor ten too favorable. So, you look for a shirt button somewhere on ten football fields. To make it not too easy, you do that while you stand on a perpetually wobbling platform and blindfolded. So your search instrument is something, you pull behind you and it beeps if you come nearer than an inch to that button. Maybe, actually, it beeps with a certain chance, to have a 100% chance you have to drag it (blindfolded) right over the button.
Aside of that, your search gear has to operate under a pressure of 350 atmospheres. An elephant weights about a ton. So, how many elephants do you need to pile up per square inch surface of your search gear? I leave that to your math skills.

Bottom line: To find this plane ever would be lucky. And to find it in the next four or five years would be really lucky. Things are not that easy, once you leave the shore behind.

[MSA-S23]

Two thoughts, and keep in mind probably everyone here is a better pilot than I am but ...


Bottom line: To find this plane ever would be lucky. And to find it in the next four or five years would be really lucky. Things are not that easy, once you leave the shore behind.

I totally agree. No one realizes how damn big our Earth is.

[HJ1AN]

So I go with botched hijacking/terrorism.

Yup, your assessment makes the most sense in a mystery that devoid of any sensible thing to work on... sadly the mystery continues still with not much clues..

[Jabberwocky]

Actually, there are clues, but the problem is, everyone is the smartest in this kind of games which makes everybody think, he doesn't need to listen to others.

- Satellite data ... the radar gurus don't like it, it'S not from their area of expertise
- Radar data ... the satellite gurus don't like it, it's not from their area of expertise
- Investigators ... have no forensic evidence because they have no plane and no bodies. But they are sure, behavioral profiling is all guess work and DNA will provide us with a miracle. No idea where the DNA shall come from, but DNA solves all problems
- Profiler ... tries to bring all details in one picture but has to run behind everybody to get those details and therefore falls sometimes victim to wrong or incomplete information
- Bureaucrat ... knows nothing about planes, forensics, behaviour, but knows what everything costs down to the penny and doesn't want to spend even one penny too much
- Politician ... has even less ideas than the bureaucrat, but he has influence and he assumes, people want him to use this influence, so he will either go for what he things brings him the most votes and best polls or he tries to make it all go away.
- Plane technicians, engineers ... want to know what happened, but since they are kind of in love with planes, they want subconsciously prove, it was the pilot's fault. Or if that is impossible, terrorists are acceptable too.
- Pilots ... are pilots, so they would like to prove it was the plane's fault. or if not that, terrorists ...
- Counterterrorism experts ... see a terrorist everywhere and they have such a wide variety of terror groups in their files, they can't make up their mind.

So all those groups of people have ideas and opinions and they speak in many aspects not even the same language (even it is mostly on the formal level English). Worse even, there is no way to get them all on one table. Everyone is part of one of the man independent investigations, means, nobody has the complete picture.

[Johan G]

It is quite sad, but from what have been seen so far it does not seem all too far from the truth.

Thankfully it seem to work out better in most other accident investigations.

[Jabberwocky]

Actually, you have in most big plane crashes the same groups of people. But sometimes, things are easier (your have a wreck on land for example or you have witness reports to work with), sometimes you get some people into the mix who know each other already and thus have built up credibility to each other and therefore a little trust and sometimes, you pull the jackpot ... it's flu season and the politicians and bureaucrats are all in bed and half-dead - which prevents them from keeping other people form working.

[berkut]

Latest..

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3269008/Plane-wreckage-containing-skeletons-painted-Malaysian-flag-remote-Philippine-island-fuelling-speculation-MH370.html?ito=social-facebook

[legoboyvdlp]

Ah, now we have something.
Looking for other MH accident reports, if there is a missing plane confirmed crashed in sea, never found.

[legoboyvdlp]

Looking like 370 so far... no other MH plane lost in sea, never found.
Obviously, could be any sort of plane.

[MSA-S23]

It's shocking; With the amount of tech we have today, this wouldn't have happened. Haven't I seen ads for a Tile; something that you can track using your iPhone? Stick one of those on the planes next time...

[HJ1AN]

I find that hard to believe - usually discoveries like these start from tweetwer, instagram, or facebook, and then the media will follow, because the discoverer would probably have a phone with him or her and then taken pictures. If not, the discoverer would go back to civilization, tell their friends or family or relatives who have a phone, and they would have gone and taken some pictures.

And I know what you're thinking, - yeah it's a remote village in the middle of nowhere.... but..... don't underestimate these people nowadays,

Also:
"An audio technician, Jamil Omar, contacted police in Malaysia to say his aunt, Siti Kayam, had stumbled upon the wreckage while she and others were hunting for birds."

Pretty sure an audio technician would have access to a smartphone, or at the very least, a dumb phone with photo taking ability..

Also also:
If the fuselage is "smashed", the headgear would not have stayed on in the pilot's head.

And about a million other fishy things from that news....

[legoboyvdlp]

But it is his aunt, so if she hunts birds for food, she will not have a phone.

[HJ1AN]

But it is his aunt, so if she hunts birds for food, she will not have a phone.

Well, like I said, don't underestimate these people. I can tell you in my place we have aborigines that are living in the most primitive way possible in the jungle including hunting for daily food - because it was easier to get supply and is well, free - (primitive comparatively to us), old habits die hard . But they have access to satellite phones and smart phones. If they don't have them personally, then the village head will definitely have one.

It is also entirely possible she came across some older wreckage that most of us have forgotten, so quite possible for this to happen though. However, there is no known record of a missing Malayan plane from those early times. Or it could be Amelia Earhart

[MSA-S23]

Hah! That brings up another picture; The aliens strike again!